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Will Cuba Fares Fall by 50%?

Author: Jacob Jackson

The diplomatic relationship between the U.S. and Cuba, which remained frozen well past the end of the Cold War, started to move toward normalization in 2015, a year during which Cuba was removed from the U.S. State Department's terrorism list and both countries reopened embassies – closed since 1961 – in each other's capitals.

Earlier this year the U.S. and Cuba signed an agreement to allow commercial flights between the two countries for the first time in more than 50 years. Shortly after, in March 2016, President Barack Obama traveled to Cuba, marking the first time a sitting U.S. president has visited the Caribbean island nation in almost 90 years. (For more, see The Impact of Ending the U.S. Embargo on Cuba.)

Prices Dropping

As U.S.-Cuba relations continue to thaw – and the U.S. gets closer to lifting all travel restrictions to Cuba – visiting the island may not only get easier for Americans but also less expensive, according to research from Hopper, a mobile app that provides predictions about when flights will be the cheapest. If Hopper's predictions prove correct, airfares from the U.S. to Cuba could drop 50% after all travel restrictions between the two countries have been lifted.

For now the price of a round-trip ticket originating in the U.S. averages $717, and that's if you travel via a tertiary country such as Canada or Mexico (because you can't fly directly) and fit into one of the 12 categories for legal travel as defined by the U.S. government, which include family visits, journalistic activity, educational activities and humanitarian projects – but not tourism. If all travel restrictions are lifted and the airlines in the U.S. add capacity to Cuba, Hopper predicts flight prices will drop to $364, about half of what fares are now. Nonstop flights from Miami could be as low as $275. (For more, see Cuba Tourism: What Will It Cost You? (JBLU).)

Travel Increasing

According to Hopper, the warming of U.S.-Cuba relations has triggered an increase in interest in traveling to Cuba. Search traffic for flights is up 500% from last year as more online travel agencies start to list flights to the island. And U.S. air carriers are keen to get on board: At least eight U.S. companies, including American Airlines, Delta, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United Airlines have begun bidding on routes from a number of hubs in the U.S. to Cuba's capital, Havana, which will allow 20 regular flights and 10 to 15 charter flights per day. Doug McGraw, a JetBlue spokesman, said that interest in Cuba has reached levels not seen for a generation.

Over the next few months the U.S. Department of Transportation will review requests from the airlines. The Havana routes will be awarded sometime this summer; flights to smaller cities in Cuba could be approved even earlier (in addition to the 20 regular daily flights that will be allowed into Havana, 90 will be permitted to fly into other Cuban cities).

Once the routes are awarded, the airlines will work on developing schedules and selling seats. They'll also have to apply to the Institute of Civil Aeronautics of Cuba, the country's civil aviation authority, for the necessary permits to operate within the country.

The Bottom Line

The launch of commercial flights will make it much easier – and cheaper – for those who fall into one of the 12 currently authorized categories to travel to Cuba. U.S. citizens still won't be able to visit Cuba legally as tourists; however, the number of sanctioned reasons to visit the island nation has grown so significantly, and the requirements are so loosely enforced, that the line between authorized traveler and tourist has become indistinct.

If the airlines get their way, you may soon be able to fly to Cuba from major U.S. hubs, including Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Fort Lauderdale, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Newark (N.J.), New York, Orlando, Tampa and Washington, D.C. (For more, see A Long Road to Full Diplomatic Relations with Cuba.)

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